Total digital advertising spending will reach $520 billion by 2023; rising from $294 billion in 2019. The figures are contained in a new study by Juniper Research. One in five of those dollars will be lost to fraud, revealed in figures contained in separate research by the company.

According to the authors of the new report this represents an average annual growth of 15 per cent over the next five years; driven by the use of AI-based programmatic advertising to deliver highly targeted ads. Digital advertising includes online, mobile browsing, in-app, SMS, DOOH (Digital-Out-of-Home) and OTT (Over-the-Top) TV services.

The new research Future Digital Advertising: Artificial Intelligence & Advertising Fraud 2019-2023 found that Amazon’s emerging digital advertising business, driven by its unparalleled consumer retail data, will drive the company to capture 8 per cent of global digital ad spend by 2023. This is forecast to rise from 3 per cent in 2018.

The report anticipates advertising platforms will focus on increasing access to contextual advertising traffic data to maximise the efficency of machine learning for targeting abilities. As a result of these efforts, 75 per cent of global online and mobile ads are forecast to be delivered via AI-based programmatic advertising by 2023.

Research author Sam Barker noted “Giving algorithms access to the vast amounts of data generated by advertising traffic, including purchasing habits, user buckets and geographical location, is critical to enabling advertisers to secure a return on their ad spend.”

Amazon’s Advertising Revenues to Reach $40 billion

The report forecasts that Amazon’s advertising revenues will reach $40 billion by 2023; a growth of 470 per cent from its advertising revenues in 2018. The company will leverage its retail data and heavy investment in machine learning to offer efficient targeting via its advertising platforms, and attract users from the established duopoly of Google and Facebook.

According to the study, Google’s advertising revenues will exceed $230 billion by 2023. Despite this, it forecasts that the company’s global market share of digital advertising spend will fall 1 per cent over the next four years due to the growth of competing platforms, including Amazon and Baidu.

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