A vast and extraordinary new market worth $US7 Trillion is set to emerge over the next 30 years as the world’s drivers become passengers with the advent of autonomous vehicles.
That’s the headline finding from a new study commissioned by Intel Corporation that explores the yet-to-be-realized economic potential of this new opportunity.
Called the “Passenger Economy” by Intel and prepared by analyst firm Strategy Analytics, the study predicts an explosive economic trajectory growing from US$800 billion in 2035 to US$7 trillion by 2050.
The authors argue that historically technology is the catalyst for massive societal transformation and that businesses need to adapt or risk failure, or worse, extinction. They cite new digital business models ushered in by personal computing, the internet, ubiquitous connectivity and smartphones as examples.
Autonomous driving will do the same, they say.
Key report highlights include:
- Business use of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is expected to generate US$3 trillion in revenues, or 43 percent of the total passenger economy.
- Consumer use of Mobility-as-a-Service offerings is expected to account for US$3.7 trillion in revenue or nearly 55 percent of the total passenger economy.
- US$200 billion of revenue is expected to be generated from rising consumer use of new innovative applications and services that will emerge as pilotless vehicle services expand and evolve.
- Conservatively, 585,000 lives can be saved due to self-driving vehicles in the era of the Passenger Economy from 2035 to 2045.
- Self-driving vehicles are expected to free more than 250 million hours of consumers’ commuting time per year in the most congested cities in the world.
- Reductions in public safety costs related to traffic accidents could amount to more than US$234 billion over the Passenger Economy era from 2035-2045
According to Intel CEO Brian Krzanich , “Companies should start thinking about their autonomous strategy now. ”
“Less than a decade ago, no one was talking about the potential of a soon-to-emerge app or sharing economy because no one saw it coming. This is why we started the conversation around the Passenger Economy early, to wake people up to the opportunity streams that will emerge when cars become the most powerful mobile data generating devices we use and people swap driving for riding.”
Autonomous driving and smart city technologies will enable the new Passenger Economy, gradually reconfiguring entire industries and inventing new ones thanks to the time and cognitive surplus it will unlock.
“Not unlike the space race of the 1960s, today’s announcement is a rallying cry to the world to put its best minds on this challenge,” said Greg Lindsay, urbanist and mobility futurist. “The future of mobility, economic advancement and the emergence of new growth opportunities like the Passenger Economy demand ongoing dialogue. I am excited to partner with Intel, take this discussion on the road and look at solutions through the lens of the diverse industries that will shape our future – from automakers to investors and policy makers to startups.”
The new report frames the value of the economic opportunity through both a consumer and business lens and begins to build use cases designed to enable decision-makers to develop actionable change strategies.
“Autonomous technology will drive change across a range of industries and define a new landscape, the first green shoots of which will appear in the business-to-business sector,” said study co-author Harvey Cohen, president, Strategy Analytics. “The emergence of pilotless vehicle options will first appear in developed markets and will reinvent the package delivery and long-haul transportation sectors. This will relieve driver shortages around the world and account for two-thirds of initial projected revenues.”
The research firm further points out that autonomously operated vehicles commercialization will gain steam by 2040 – generating an increasingly large share of the projected value and heralding the emergence of instantaneously personalized services.
The study also identifies a set of future scenarios including;
- Car-venience: From onboard beauty salons to touch-screen tables for remote collaboration, fast-casual dining, remote vending, mobile healthcare clinics and treatment pods, and even platooning pod hotels, vehicles will become transportation experience pods.
- Movable movies: Media and content producers will develop custom content formats to match short and long travel times.
- Location-based advertising: Location-based advertising will become more keenly relevant, and advertisers and agencies will be presented with a new realm of possibilities for presenting content brands and location.
- Mobility-as-a-perk: Employers, office buildings, apartment complexes, university campuses and housing estates will offer MaaS to add value to and distinguish their offer from competitors or as part of their compensation package.
The Passenger Economy report was sponsored by Intel and developed by Strategy Analytics. To read the full report and see additional materials, visit newsroom.intel.com/autonomous.