The number of OEM-Pay contactless users across the Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Android Pay eco-system will exceed 100 million for the first time during H1-2017, before surpassing 150 million by the end of this year.

The figures are contained in a new reported from Juniper.

According to the new research – Contactless Payments: NFC Handsets, Wearables & Payment Cards 2017-2021 – the combined market share of Apple, Samsung, and Google (via Android Pay), increased from 20 per cent in 2015 to 41 per cent in 2016, as a proportion of total mobile contactless payment users.

Juniper forecasts that this will rise to 56 per cent by 2021, as the trio’s combined user base exceeds 500 million.

Apple is set to dominate OEM-Pay market over the next four years with Apple Pay users are predicted to nearly double, reaching 86 million in 2017.

Apple Pay users
Source: Juniper

The research found that Apple Pay, and the alternative wallets that have followed in its wake, are likely to be the primary contactless mechanisms of choice in the US.

The challenge facing Apple and its rivals, however, is to ensure that the infrastructure is in place for consumers to make in-store payments.

“We believe that as contactless usage gains traction and consumers/merchants recognise the speed and convenience it offers, then, as in European markets, there will be a further and significant increase in availability at the point-of-sale,” said research author Nitin Bhas.

Indeed, according to Apple, the proportion of US retailers supporting Apple Pay rose from 4 per cent in 2014 to 35 per cent in late 2016.

The research found that 2015/16 were watershed years for HCE (Host Card Emulation) in terms of commercial service rollouts. Juniper estimates that at least 194 banks had introduced such services by the end of 2016.

Juniper expect PayPal, already near ubiquitous in the online space, to rapidly deploy a portfolio of contactless payment and loyalty solutions that will allow it to compete effectively for market share.

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