Machine learning, deep learning and the connected home have reached the peak of the Hype Cycle, while blockchain and commercial drones have begun the slide into the ‘trough of disillusionment’.
According to Gartner’s 2017 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, augmented reality and virtual reality have begun to climb the ‘plateau of productivity’ as they approach mainstream adoption.
The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies report is the longest-running annual Gartner Hype Cycle, providing a cross-industry perspective on the technologies and trends and how long it will take for them to reach mainstream adoption.
Gartner is tipping artificial intelligence technologies will be the most disruptive class of technologies over the next decade, giving organisations the ability to harness data insights to adapt to new situations and solve problems.
But for certain areas mainstream adoption of AI is still a decade away. For example Gartner is projecting that it will take more than 10 years for AI in marketing to reach the Plateau of Productivity.
There are three megatrends Gartner argues will drive businesses in the digital economy over the next five to 10 years: Artificial intelligence (AI) everywhere, transparently immersive experiences and digital platforms .
“AI Everywhere” emerging technologies are moving rapidly through the Hype Cycle. Technologies such as deep learning, autonomous learning and cognitive computing are just crossing the peak.
Enterprises that are seeking leverage in this theme should consider the following technologies: deep learning, deep reinforcement learning, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, cognitive computing, commercial UAVs (drones), conversational user interfaces, enterprise taxonomy and ontology management, machine learning, smart dust, smart robots and smart workspace.
Technologies such as quantum computing (climbing the innovation trigger) and blockchain (having passed the peak) are also poised to create “the most transformative and dramatic impacts in the next five to 10 years.”
Digital platforms are rapidly moving up the Hype Cycle, illustrating the new IT realities that are possible by providing the underlying platforms that will fuel the future.
“Enterprise architects who are focused on technology innovation must evaluate these high-level trends and the featured technologies, as well as the potential impact on their businesses,” said Mike J. Walker, research director at Gartner.
“In addition to the potential impact on businesses, these trends provide a significant opportunity for enterprise architecture leaders to help senior business and IT leaders respond to the digital business opportunities and threats by creating signature-ready actionable and diagnostic deliverables that guide investment decisions.”