For the upcoming holiday season, Adobe predicts online sales will increase 14.1 per cent to US$143.6 billion. 

The prediction, made by Adobe’s “Sensei” AI and machine learning technology, claims the holiday bump will help US total retail spending, both online and offline, grow 4 per cent. 

According to Adobe, one out of five dollars spent this holiday season will be spent during Cyber Week between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, generating US$29 billion or 20 per cent of total online revenue this season. 

With 22 days between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day, there are six fewer days of peak holiday shopping days than last year, translating into almost US$1 billion of potential revenue lost due to the abridged time period. 

The compressed shopping calendar means that retailers will begin sales earlier than ever before, with each day in November and December surpassing US$1 billion in online retail sales for the first time.

Scott Rigby, head of digital transformation for Adobe said these US numbers are a guide for trends in Australia.

“We expect online sales to increase by 14.1 per cent, while total retail spending – both online and offline – looks set to increase 4.0 per cent. Consumers are increasingly leaning towards shopping online and on the go, with spend via smartphones set to account for 36 percent of all online sales this sales season.

“While Australians continue to use desktops to make research-heavy purchases like furniture, electronics, and appliances, Australian retailers without an omni-channel strategy and presence are very likely to miss out on the opportunities of the upcoming sales period.”

Cyber Monday will be leading as the day with the fastest and largest growth at US$9.4 billion in sales, a 18.9 per cent increase from 2018.  Adobe went as far as to predict sales between 7pm and 11pm pacific time on Cyber Monday will bring in US$3 billion in revenue. 

Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to increase by 19.5 per cent, generating US$4.4 billion. 

John Copeland, head of marketing and consumer insights at Adobe said, “The compressed shopping cycle will see retailers launching offers far earlier than ever before.

“With fewer days to spend, Adobe Analytics predicts that BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) will be more popular than ever before, with revenue from this delivery method doubling in the week before Christmas as shoppers rush to complete their gift lists.”

Adobe predicts some of the best days for deals include Black Friday for appliances and sporting goods; December 1 for toys and computers; Cyber Monday for TVs and December 3 for furniture, bedding, tools and home improvement items. 

Americans will spend US$14 billion more on their smartphones compared to last year, accounting for 36 per cent of all online sales, a 20 per cent increase in share YoY, and 57 per cent of visits, an eleven per cent increase YoY. 

With retailers optimising for mobile, online spend on smartphones will increase from 30 to 47 US cents per minute, a 63 per cent jump since 2016. 

Consumers will continue to use desktops to make research-heavy purchases like furniture, electronics and appliances, resulting in a 28 per cent higher AOV than on smartphones.

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